Thesis track

People will buy US stocks through NEAR Intents, but only when an app packages it. The demand fades when the push stops.

Each chart below comes from the NEAR Intents Explorer API and nearbags' own on-chain balances, rebuilt with pnpm thesis. We started from “tokenized US stocks are becoming a real use of NEAR Intents”; the data below rejected that, so the claim changed. The full argument and the evidence against it are in THESIS.md in the repo.

Built 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC2026-05-18 → 2026-11-1119 Ondo tokens

Ondo swap volume per week

Ondo swaps moved $7,116 in the last 30 days, −91.6% vs the 30 days before.

week of 2026-11-09Volume$2.5K
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  toTokenId=<one Ondo id>     (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  fromTokenId=<one Ondo id>   (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Ondo ids:
AAPL   nep141:bnb-0x390a684ef9cade28a7ad0dfa61ab1eb3842618c4.omdep.near
AMZN   nep141:bnb-0x4553cfe1c09f37f38b12dc509f676964e392f8fc.omdep.near
CRCL   nep141:bnb-0x992879cd8ce0c312d98648875b5a8d6d042cbf34.omdep.near
GOOGL  nep141:bnb-0x091fc7778e6932d4009b087b191d1ee3bac5729a.omdep.near
HOOD   nep141:bnb-0x19601179a60f55ff6636f5d1a8b6671053bd60a8.omdep.near
INTC   nep141:bnb-0xa528caaa2f96090e379d43f90834c75df54d6e74.omdep.near
META   nep141:bnb-0xd7df5863a3e742f0c767768cdfcb63f09e0422f6.omdep.near
MRVL   nep141:bnb-0x1501ec83ffef405b4331cc4f73277a40fb0c627d.omdep.near
MSFT   nep141:bnb-0x6bfe75d1ad432050ea973c3a3dcd88f02e2444c3.omdep.near
NVDA   nep141:bnb-0xa9ee28c80f960b889dfbd1902055218cba016f75.omdep.near
TSLA   nep141:bnb-0x2494b603319d4d9f9715c9f4496d9e0364b59d93.omdep.near
SPY    nep141:bnb-0x6a708ead771238919d85930b5a0f10454e1c331a.omdep.near
QQQ    nep141:bnb-0x0cde6936d305d5b34667fc46425e852efd73559a.omdep.near
GLD    nep141:bnb-0xfa9a1e901085e269f6d428f79cd5252d8b919344.omdep.near
IAU    nep141:bnb-0xcb2a0f46f67dc4c58a316f1c008edef5c2311795.omdep.near
SLV    nep141:bnb-0x8b872732b07be325a8803cdb480d9d20b6f8d11b.omdep.near
SGOV   nep141:bnb-0xc008c5f579ec1450f20099c39f587547e27c7523.omdep.near
TIP    nep141:bnb-0x2ac26ec236df5d1d2ad1a6dd4e448a90e45dc35d.omdep.near
TLT    nep141:bnb-0xf69e40069ac227c11459e3f4e8a446b3401616b6.omdep.near

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC. Volume = sum of USD per week.

Ondo swaps and unique traders per week

33 traders made 87 Ondo swaps in the last 30 days.

week of 2026-11-09Swaps39Traders10
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  toTokenId=<one Ondo id>     (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  fromTokenId=<one Ondo id>   (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Ondo ids:
AAPL   nep141:bnb-0x390a684ef9cade28a7ad0dfa61ab1eb3842618c4.omdep.near
AMZN   nep141:bnb-0x4553cfe1c09f37f38b12dc509f676964e392f8fc.omdep.near
CRCL   nep141:bnb-0x992879cd8ce0c312d98648875b5a8d6d042cbf34.omdep.near
GOOGL  nep141:bnb-0x091fc7778e6932d4009b087b191d1ee3bac5729a.omdep.near
HOOD   nep141:bnb-0x19601179a60f55ff6636f5d1a8b6671053bd60a8.omdep.near
INTC   nep141:bnb-0xa528caaa2f96090e379d43f90834c75df54d6e74.omdep.near
META   nep141:bnb-0xd7df5863a3e742f0c767768cdfcb63f09e0422f6.omdep.near
MRVL   nep141:bnb-0x1501ec83ffef405b4331cc4f73277a40fb0c627d.omdep.near
MSFT   nep141:bnb-0x6bfe75d1ad432050ea973c3a3dcd88f02e2444c3.omdep.near
NVDA   nep141:bnb-0xa9ee28c80f960b889dfbd1902055218cba016f75.omdep.near
TSLA   nep141:bnb-0x2494b603319d4d9f9715c9f4496d9e0364b59d93.omdep.near
SPY    nep141:bnb-0x6a708ead771238919d85930b5a0f10454e1c331a.omdep.near
QQQ    nep141:bnb-0x0cde6936d305d5b34667fc46425e852efd73559a.omdep.near
GLD    nep141:bnb-0xfa9a1e901085e269f6d428f79cd5252d8b919344.omdep.near
IAU    nep141:bnb-0xcb2a0f46f67dc4c58a316f1c008edef5c2311795.omdep.near
SLV    nep141:bnb-0x8b872732b07be325a8803cdb480d9d20b6f8d11b.omdep.near
SGOV   nep141:bnb-0xc008c5f579ec1450f20099c39f587547e27c7523.omdep.near
TIP    nep141:bnb-0x2ac26ec236df5d1d2ad1a6dd4e448a90e45dc35d.omdep.near
TLT    nep141:bnb-0xf69e40069ac227c11459e3f4e8a446b3401616b6.omdep.near

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC.

Ondo share of all 1Click volume

Ondo swaps were 0.00057% of all 1Click volume in the week of 2026-11-02.

week of 2026-11-02Share0.00057%
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<week end>   (one window per UTC week, Monday 00:00)
  minUsdPrice=0   (swaps only, same as the token-filtered calls)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC. Share = Ondo rows in this pull ÷ all rows in this pull, by USD. Only weeks that ended 2+ days ago and were pulled to the last page.

Weekday vs weekend

43.4% of Ondo volume was on Saturday or Sunday (UTC).

  • Mon$15.5K177 swaps
  • Tue$5.6K46 swaps
  • Wed$5.5K56 swaps
  • Thu$12.2K118 swaps
  • Fri$14.3K84 swaps
  • Sat$3.5K38 swaps
  • Sun$37.3K289 swaps
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  toTokenId=<one Ondo id>     (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  fromTokenId=<one Ondo id>   (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Ondo ids:
AAPL   nep141:bnb-0x390a684ef9cade28a7ad0dfa61ab1eb3842618c4.omdep.near
AMZN   nep141:bnb-0x4553cfe1c09f37f38b12dc509f676964e392f8fc.omdep.near
CRCL   nep141:bnb-0x992879cd8ce0c312d98648875b5a8d6d042cbf34.omdep.near
GOOGL  nep141:bnb-0x091fc7778e6932d4009b087b191d1ee3bac5729a.omdep.near
HOOD   nep141:bnb-0x19601179a60f55ff6636f5d1a8b6671053bd60a8.omdep.near
INTC   nep141:bnb-0xa528caaa2f96090e379d43f90834c75df54d6e74.omdep.near
META   nep141:bnb-0xd7df5863a3e742f0c767768cdfcb63f09e0422f6.omdep.near
MRVL   nep141:bnb-0x1501ec83ffef405b4331cc4f73277a40fb0c627d.omdep.near
MSFT   nep141:bnb-0x6bfe75d1ad432050ea973c3a3dcd88f02e2444c3.omdep.near
NVDA   nep141:bnb-0xa9ee28c80f960b889dfbd1902055218cba016f75.omdep.near
TSLA   nep141:bnb-0x2494b603319d4d9f9715c9f4496d9e0364b59d93.omdep.near
SPY    nep141:bnb-0x6a708ead771238919d85930b5a0f10454e1c331a.omdep.near
QQQ    nep141:bnb-0x0cde6936d305d5b34667fc46425e852efd73559a.omdep.near
GLD    nep141:bnb-0xfa9a1e901085e269f6d428f79cd5252d8b919344.omdep.near
IAU    nep141:bnb-0xcb2a0f46f67dc4c58a316f1c008edef5c2311795.omdep.near
SLV    nep141:bnb-0x8b872732b07be325a8803cdb480d9d20b6f8d11b.omdep.near
SGOV   nep141:bnb-0xc008c5f579ec1450f20099c39f587547e27c7523.omdep.near
TIP    nep141:bnb-0x2ac26ec236df5d1d2ad1a6dd4e448a90e45dc35d.omdep.near
TLT    nep141:bnb-0xf69e40069ac227c11459e3f4e8a446b3401616b6.omdep.near

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC. Day = UTC day of createdAtTimestamp.

Swap sizes

The median Ondo swap was $59; 99.3% were under $1,000.

  • < $100536$24.1K
  • $100–1K266$54.2K
  • $1K–10K6$15.6K
  • $10K–100K0$0
  • ≥ $100K0$0
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  toTokenId=<one Ondo id>     (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  fromTokenId=<one Ondo id>   (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Ondo ids:
AAPL   nep141:bnb-0x390a684ef9cade28a7ad0dfa61ab1eb3842618c4.omdep.near
AMZN   nep141:bnb-0x4553cfe1c09f37f38b12dc509f676964e392f8fc.omdep.near
CRCL   nep141:bnb-0x992879cd8ce0c312d98648875b5a8d6d042cbf34.omdep.near
GOOGL  nep141:bnb-0x091fc7778e6932d4009b087b191d1ee3bac5729a.omdep.near
HOOD   nep141:bnb-0x19601179a60f55ff6636f5d1a8b6671053bd60a8.omdep.near
INTC   nep141:bnb-0xa528caaa2f96090e379d43f90834c75df54d6e74.omdep.near
META   nep141:bnb-0xd7df5863a3e742f0c767768cdfcb63f09e0422f6.omdep.near
MRVL   nep141:bnb-0x1501ec83ffef405b4331cc4f73277a40fb0c627d.omdep.near
MSFT   nep141:bnb-0x6bfe75d1ad432050ea973c3a3dcd88f02e2444c3.omdep.near
NVDA   nep141:bnb-0xa9ee28c80f960b889dfbd1902055218cba016f75.omdep.near
TSLA   nep141:bnb-0x2494b603319d4d9f9715c9f4496d9e0364b59d93.omdep.near
SPY    nep141:bnb-0x6a708ead771238919d85930b5a0f10454e1c331a.omdep.near
QQQ    nep141:bnb-0x0cde6936d305d5b34667fc46425e852efd73559a.omdep.near
GLD    nep141:bnb-0xfa9a1e901085e269f6d428f79cd5252d8b919344.omdep.near
IAU    nep141:bnb-0xcb2a0f46f67dc4c58a316f1c008edef5c2311795.omdep.near
SLV    nep141:bnb-0x8b872732b07be325a8803cdb480d9d20b6f8d11b.omdep.near
SGOV   nep141:bnb-0xc008c5f579ec1450f20099c39f587547e27c7523.omdep.near
TIP    nep141:bnb-0x2ac26ec236df5d1d2ad1a6dd4e448a90e45dc35d.omdep.near
TLT    nep141:bnb-0xf69e40069ac227c11459e3f4e8a446b3401616b6.omdep.near

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC. Bands: < $100, $100–1K, $1K–10K, $10K–100K, ≥ $100K.

Which app routed the swaps

sonear routed 55.6% of Ondo swaps and 49.4% of the volume, from the week of 2026-09-21 to 2026-11-09. The peak week (2026-09-21) was $48,745; the latest full week was $1,506.

  • sonear449$46.4K
  • (none)207$19.6K
  • shards89$6.3K
  • swapkit22$18.7K
  • umbra17$1.7K
  • new.intents-referral.near11$805
  • stonkbag5$67
  • near-mobile4$166
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  toTokenId=<one Ondo id>     (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  fromTokenId=<one Ondo id>   (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Ondo ids:
AAPL   nep141:bnb-0x390a684ef9cade28a7ad0dfa61ab1eb3842618c4.omdep.near
AMZN   nep141:bnb-0x4553cfe1c09f37f38b12dc509f676964e392f8fc.omdep.near
CRCL   nep141:bnb-0x992879cd8ce0c312d98648875b5a8d6d042cbf34.omdep.near
GOOGL  nep141:bnb-0x091fc7778e6932d4009b087b191d1ee3bac5729a.omdep.near
HOOD   nep141:bnb-0x19601179a60f55ff6636f5d1a8b6671053bd60a8.omdep.near
INTC   nep141:bnb-0xa528caaa2f96090e379d43f90834c75df54d6e74.omdep.near
META   nep141:bnb-0xd7df5863a3e742f0c767768cdfcb63f09e0422f6.omdep.near
MRVL   nep141:bnb-0x1501ec83ffef405b4331cc4f73277a40fb0c627d.omdep.near
MSFT   nep141:bnb-0x6bfe75d1ad432050ea973c3a3dcd88f02e2444c3.omdep.near
NVDA   nep141:bnb-0xa9ee28c80f960b889dfbd1902055218cba016f75.omdep.near
TSLA   nep141:bnb-0x2494b603319d4d9f9715c9f4496d9e0364b59d93.omdep.near
SPY    nep141:bnb-0x6a708ead771238919d85930b5a0f10454e1c331a.omdep.near
QQQ    nep141:bnb-0x0cde6936d305d5b34667fc46425e852efd73559a.omdep.near
GLD    nep141:bnb-0xfa9a1e901085e269f6d428f79cd5252d8b919344.omdep.near
IAU    nep141:bnb-0xcb2a0f46f67dc4c58a316f1c008edef5c2311795.omdep.near
SLV    nep141:bnb-0x8b872732b07be325a8803cdb480d9d20b6f8d11b.omdep.near
SGOV   nep141:bnb-0xc008c5f579ec1450f20099c39f587547e27c7523.omdep.near
TIP    nep141:bnb-0x2ac26ec236df5d1d2ad1a6dd4e448a90e45dc35d.omdep.near
TLT    nep141:bnb-0xf69e40069ac227c11459e3f4e8a446b3401616b6.omdep.near

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC. App = the row's referral field; empty counts as (none).

Top assets

NVDA was 40.0% of Ondo volume; 19 of 19 tokens traded at all.

  • NVDA$37.5K208 in / 117 out
  • CRCL$13.3K20 in / 11 out
  • TSLA$9.2K59 in / 36 out
  • SPY$8.0K47 in / 32 out
  • GLD$3.9K30 in / 19 out
  • GOOGL$3.7K16 in / 10 out
  • QQQ$3.0K15 in / 7 out
  • SLV$2.5K9 in / 8 out
  • AAPL$2.3K17 in / 15 out
  • MRVL$2.0K12 in / 11 out
  • INTC$1.9K11 in / 7 out
  • META$1.9K12 in / 7 out
How this was made
GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  toTokenId=<one Ondo id>     (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

GET https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions
Authorization: Bearer $EXPLORER_JWT
  numberOfTransactions=1000
  statuses=SUCCESS
  startTimestampUnix=<first week start − 1>  endTimestampUnix=<now>   (the whole range at once)
  fromTokenId=<one Ondo id>   (one call per id: 19 ids, below)
  then: direction=next&lastDepositAddress=<last row>&lastDepositMemo=<last row> until a page has < 1000 rows

Ondo ids:
AAPL   nep141:bnb-0x390a684ef9cade28a7ad0dfa61ab1eb3842618c4.omdep.near
AMZN   nep141:bnb-0x4553cfe1c09f37f38b12dc509f676964e392f8fc.omdep.near
CRCL   nep141:bnb-0x992879cd8ce0c312d98648875b5a8d6d042cbf34.omdep.near
GOOGL  nep141:bnb-0x091fc7778e6932d4009b087b191d1ee3bac5729a.omdep.near
HOOD   nep141:bnb-0x19601179a60f55ff6636f5d1a8b6671053bd60a8.omdep.near
INTC   nep141:bnb-0xa528caaa2f96090e379d43f90834c75df54d6e74.omdep.near
META   nep141:bnb-0xd7df5863a3e742f0c767768cdfcb63f09e0422f6.omdep.near
MRVL   nep141:bnb-0x1501ec83ffef405b4331cc4f73277a40fb0c627d.omdep.near
MSFT   nep141:bnb-0x6bfe75d1ad432050ea973c3a3dcd88f02e2444c3.omdep.near
NVDA   nep141:bnb-0xa9ee28c80f960b889dfbd1902055218cba016f75.omdep.near
TSLA   nep141:bnb-0x2494b603319d4d9f9715c9f4496d9e0364b59d93.omdep.near
SPY    nep141:bnb-0x6a708ead771238919d85930b5a0f10454e1c331a.omdep.near
QQQ    nep141:bnb-0x0cde6936d305d5b34667fc46425e852efd73559a.omdep.near
GLD    nep141:bnb-0xfa9a1e901085e269f6d428f79cd5252d8b919344.omdep.near
IAU    nep141:bnb-0xcb2a0f46f67dc4c58a316f1c008edef5c2311795.omdep.near
SLV    nep141:bnb-0x8b872732b07be325a8803cdb480d9d20b6f8d11b.omdep.near
SGOV   nep141:bnb-0xc008c5f579ec1450f20099c39f587547e27c7523.omdep.near
TIP    nep141:bnb-0x2ac26ec236df5d1d2ad1a6dd4e448a90e45dc35d.omdep.near
TLT    nep141:bnb-0xf69e40069ac227c11459e3f4e8a446b3401616b6.omdep.near

Counted: status SUCCESS only, deduplicated by deposit address + memo. USD = amountInUsd (amountOutUsd if zero). Trader = refundTo, else first sender, else recipient. Weeks start Monday 00:00 UTC.

nearbags basket TVL

nearbags baskets held $0 across 7 baskets and 0 holders when the data was built.

day 2026-11-10TVL$0
How this was made
NEAR RPC view call on intents.near, per basket position account:
  mt_batch_balance_of { account_id, token_ids }
priced at reference prices (src/lib/stats.ts); history from the daily snapshots table (/api/cron/snapshots).

TVL = sum over live and closed baskets of each position's token balances × reference price.